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Hotspot Policing: Strategy, Practice, Research

by Helen Gordon-Smith | Apr 30, 2026 | 0 comments

N8 PRP Webinar Explores Evidence, Implementation and Analytical Challenges.

A well‑attended N8 Policing Research Partnership webinar on 30 April brought together more than 130 participants from police forces and academic institutions across the UK and Ireland to examine the current state of hotspots policing.

The session featured presentations from Julia Wire of the College of Policing and Dr Toby Davies of the University of Leeds, chaired by Dr Mike Rowe of the University of Liverpool.

Understanding Hotspots Policing: Evidence and National Practice

Julia Wire opened the event by setting out what hotspots policing actually means in practice. As she explained, it is fundamentally about “putting the right people in the right place at the right time, doing the right thing,” a line echoed in the transcript: “It is quite a simple concept… targeting resources and activities to those places where crime is most concentrated.”

Wire emphasised the strong evidence base behind hotspots policing, noting that around 1% of places in a city can account for 25% of crime. Meta‑analyses suggest crime reductions of roughly 16% overall, with even higher reductions for violent crime, disorder and drug offences. Crucially, research shows little evidence of displacement; instead, surrounding areas often experience “residual benefits.”

However, Wire highlighted that implementation across England and Wales has been uneven. Since 2021, the Home Office has funded various iterations of hotspots initiatives—from the Grip Fund to the Hotspot Action Fund—each with shifting priorities, crime types and funding structures. Forces have been required to identify hotspots using data‑driven methods, deliver regular patrols, and increasingly incorporate problem‑solving approaches.

Yet challenges persist. Wire noted that analysts are “a much underused, undervalued resource,” and many forces lack the software, staffing or organisational structures to support consistent hotspot identification. She also pointed to tensions between evidence‑based targeting and political or geographic expectations of fairness: “You can say to a force your hotspots are here, but… we need all of the force to have some hotspots patrolling.”

Analytical Choices and Their Consequences

Dr Toby Davies followed with a detailed exploration of how analytical decisions shape hotspot identification—and, ultimately, policing outcomes. His work, conducted with West Yorkshire Police and others, examines how choices about spatial units, time windows and update frequency affect both the concentration and stability of hotspots.

Davies demonstrated that smaller spatial units and shorter historical windows produce more concentrated hotspots, capturing more crime within fewer areas. However, these hotspots are also less stable, shifting significantly from month to month. Larger units and longer time windows offer stability but dilute concentration.

This creates an unavoidable trade‑off. As Davies explained: “Optimising for concentration… will make your hotspots volatile… whereas optimising for stability… will not maximise their preventative potential.”

He also presented modelling that estimates the potential national impact of hotspot interventions. Even under optimistic assumptions, reductions were modest—typically between 2% and 8% depending on crime type and resource allocation. This, he argued, suggests that while hotspots policing is valuable, it cannot alone deliver ambitious national targets such as halving knife crime.

Discussion: Implementation Realities and Future Directions

The Q&A session revealed widespread concern among analysts about sustainability. Several forces reported losing dedicated analytical staff following recent funding changes, raising questions about how hotspots policing can become “business as usual” without long‑term investment.

Participants also discussed the importance of officer buy‑in. As one attendee noted, officers sometimes question the value of patrolling an area where “nothing is happening,” requiring better communication about prevention and feedback loops to demonstrate impact.

Both speakers agreed that engagement—not just presence—is essential. As Davies put it, evidence suggests that “getting out of the car or speaking to people… is the hotspot policing,” rather than simply being visible.

A Strategy with Promise, but Not a Silver Bullet

The webinar underscored that hotspots policing remains one of the most evidence‑supported crime‑reduction strategies available. Yet its effectiveness depends heavily on analytical capability, organisational commitment, and thoughtful integration with problem‑solving and prevention.

As forces navigate shifting funding landscapes and rising expectations, the session highlighted both the promise of hotspots policing and the practical challenges that must be addressed to embed it meaningfully across the UK.

Positive Feedback and Participant Reflections

The event received strong positive feedback from attendees, who praised both the quality of the content and the clarity of delivery. Participants highlighted the “excellent insight into hotspot policing” and described the speakers as “very engaging” and “highly knowledgeable.” Participants said they valued the opportunity to hear from both the College of Policing and current Home Office‑linked researchers, which helped “triangulate perspectives”, and commended the presentations as interesting and well presented.